Saturday, May 23, 2009

Operations Research

I have been spending some of the first half of my fellowship year gaining some background into the techniques and applications of operations research.



What is Operations Research?

Operations research involves the modelling of complex real-world systems in order to aid decision making. The goal is often to find optimal, or at least improved strategies.

For example, these are some of the sorts of questions that involve OR techniques:
  • How many checkouts (/call-centre operators) should we have open at various times of the day?
  • Where is the best location for emergency services?
  • How should we price our services with consideration to the competition?
  • How much of each product should we produce/stock/invest in?
  • How should our airline/rail/ferry services be scheduled?

Techniques of OR include:
  • Linear programming
  • Integer (and mixed) programming
  • Non-linear programming (non-linear objective function, may use calculus)
  • Queueing theory
  • Game theory
  • Simulation
  • Network models
  • Forecasting
  • Dynamic programming (for making a sequence of interrelated decisions)
  • Stochastic programming (building in uncertainty to the problem)

To my knowledge, courses in OR are running at Auckland, Canterbury, Waikato and Victoria universities, although you might find aspects in Management Science courses at other universities.


A very good explanation of OR, together with its history, case studies and activities suitable for students can be found on an American website 'High School Operations Research'

http://www.hsor.org/what_is_or.cfm



OR in the NZ Secondary Curriculum

The key parts secondary mathematics that relate to OR are:

Year 12

Probability simulations (Achievement Standard 2.6)

Networks (Unit standard 5249)

Year 13

Linear programming (Statistics and Modelling A.S. 3.4)

Probability and Probability distributions (A.S. 3.3 & 3.6)

Time series (A.S. 3.1)



The place of networks in the curriculum is interesting. In spite of being listed in level 8 of the curriculum for many years, it has not been part of any Level 3 NCEA standards, nor of the previous University Bursary Calculus or Statistics prescriptions. There is a Level 2 NCEA unit standard on networks, although this would normally be given to the less academic mathematics students. Here it is again in the new curriculum statement:

Level 7 - "Choose appropriate networks to find optimal solutions."

Level 8 - "Develop network diagrams to find optimal solutions, including critical paths."

OR in New Zealand
There are a number of significant applications of operations research happening here, such as:
  • Hydro-electric power generation (e.g. operations of Clutha hydro river chain, Mighty River Power (use of linear programming))
  • Air NZ scheduling
  • NZ electricity market (game theory models)
  • Milk collection (vehicle routing/ networks problem)
  • emegrency services (software developed in Auckland to minimise response time is being used overseas)

A Wellington OR Company

When NZ Post was looking at restructuring, Orbit Systems in Wellington developed a mixed integer programming model for mail collection, sorting, transport and delivery. They also did a ferry operations simulation for the Cook Strait fast ferry. But Craig MacLeod, Managing Director of Orbit Systems, points out that OR seems to be valued more highly overseas than in NZ, and much of their work is for overseas companies. For example, they have developed software for optimising warehouse usage and truck-loading operations, which have saved USA companies millions of dollars.

Craig had some interesting things to say about the skills required by people working in this area. "You need a group of people to bring different skills to a modelling problem", so the ability to work in a team is critical. And good computing (programming) skills are essential.

ORSNZ

A useful place to find examples of local research in OR is through the conference papers of the Operations Research Society of New Zealand. Follow the Annual Conference link to the conference proceedings for each of the conferences. ORSNZ also publishes a newletter about three times a year.
www.orsnz.org.nz